{"id":20899,"date":"2020-06-08T22:00:51","date_gmt":"2020-06-08T18:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ict.io\/?p=20899"},"modified":"2021-03-16T18:22:59","modified_gmt":"2021-03-16T14:22:59","slug":"covista-by-data-prisme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ict.io\/covista-by-data-prisme\/","title":{"rendered":"COVISTA projeter l\u2019\u00e9volution du COVID"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>O\u00f9 en sera l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de Covid19 \u00e0 No\u00ebl ? Covista est une application web qui permet d\u2019illustrer les dynamiques auxquelles on peut s\u2019attendre en France dans l\u2019\u00e9volution du Covid19. D\u00e9velopp\u00e9e par l\u2019entreprise r\u00e9unionnaise Data-prisme, cette application web a un objectif p\u00e9dagogique : sensibiliser la population \u00e0 l\u2019importance du respect des gestes barri\u00e8res.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Un site \u00e0 fin p\u00e9dagogique pour responsabiliser la population<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Face \u00e0 la propagation du COVID-19, Data-Prisme a voulu mettre au service du public ses comp\u00e9tences et sa technologie afin de proposer un outil de simulation de propagation de la maladie. COVISTA <em>by Data-Prisme <\/em>propose aux visiteurs de se projeter dans le futur en choisissant des sc\u00e9narios pr\u00e9-d\u00e9finis de propagation de la maladie ou de choisir ses propres hypoth\u00e8ses de propagation. Le visiteur peut ainsi choisir une date (par exemple, le 25 d\u00e9cembre 2020) et savoir combien de personnes auront \u00e9t\u00e9 contamin\u00e9es \u00e0 No\u00ebl, ou encore, combien de personnes seront hospitalis\u00e9es \u00e0 cette date dans un service de r\u00e9animation. <strong>Ces projections n\u2019ont aucune valeur pr\u00e9dictive mais permettent d\u2019illustrer les dynamiques auxquelles on peut s\u2019attendre au moment o\u00f9 l\u2019on fait la projection (et avec les donn\u00e9es connues \u00e0 ce moment). <\/strong>Le but de ce projet est avant tout p\u00e9dagogique. Il doit permettre aux visiteurs de comprendre et d\u2019appr\u00e9hender visuellement les cons\u00e9quences d\u2019un changement d\u2019attitude dans la propagation de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie. Il s&rsquo;agit d&rsquo;une estimation calcul\u00e9e qui est le r\u00e9sultat d&rsquo;une simulation et non l&rsquo;\u00e9tat r\u00e9el de la propagation du COVID-19. \u00ab <em>Ce site a pour nous \u00e9t\u00e9 une \u00e9vidence. Il nous est apparu comme un outil p\u00e9dagogique qui pourra contribuer \u00e0 la prise de conscience de la population de l\u2019impact des changements de comportement individuel sur l\u2019\u00e9volution de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie. Les comportements humains sont souvent illogiques, les math\u00e9matiques viennent implacablement rappeler la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 de la situation <\/em>\u00bb explique Matthieu Neveu, directeur de Data-Prisme.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>COVISTA &#8211; Les math\u00e9matiques pour pr\u00e9venir plut\u00f4t que gu\u00e9rir<\/h2>\n<p>La mod\u00e9lisation math\u00e9matique d&rsquo;une \u00e9pid\u00e9mie a pour objectif d&rsquo;\u00e9valuer les hypoth\u00e8ses en cours afin d&rsquo;indiquer une tendance. Les \u00e9pid\u00e9mies commencent toutes selon un processus qui ob\u00e9it \u00e0 une fonction exponentielle. Il s&rsquo;agit d&rsquo;une fonction math\u00e9matique strictement croissante, autrement dit le nombre d&rsquo;infect\u00e9s augmente de plus en plus vite. Cette vitesse de propagation est appel\u00e9e R0. R0 repr\u00e9sente le nombre de personnes infect\u00e9es par un malade. Ainsi, avec une vitesse de propagation de 3 (R0=3) signifie qu\u2019un patient malade infectera 3 personnes. En dessous de 1, la propagation de la maladie est ma\u00eetris\u00e9e. Pour d\u00e9velopper COVISTA, Data-Prisme s\u2019est appuy\u00e9 sur des recherches scientifiques anglo-saxonnes, notamment l\u2019Imp\u00e9rial Coll\u00e8ge de Londres et a utilis\u00e9 un mod\u00e8le \u00e9pid\u00e9miologique \u00e0 compartiment de type SIR (Sain, Infect\u00e9, R\u00e9tabli). L\u2019entreprise r\u00e9unionnaise a choisi de mod\u00e9liser l&rsquo;\u00e9pid\u00e9mie avec des vitesses de propagation (R0) diff\u00e9rentes et une latence de propagation. Data-Prisme a ensuite optimis\u00e9 son mod\u00e8le jusqu\u2019\u00e0 arriver \u00e0 une marge d\u2019erreur de 2,08%.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Data-Prisme expert en Data et Machine Learning<\/h2>\n<p>Data-Prisme, entreprise faisant partie de la French Tech R\u00e9unionnaise est un expert dans le traitement de la Data et du Machine Learning. Ainsi, COVISTA int\u00e8gre automatiquement les nouvelles donn\u00e9es publi\u00e9es par le minist\u00e8re de la sant\u00e9. Le syst\u00e8me les r\u00e9cup\u00e8re, les nettoie, les int\u00e8gre, les analyse et<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>comme la situation \u00e9volue, COVISTA recalcule la vitesse de propagation (R0) et tous les param\u00e8tres de sorte que le taux d\u2019erreur soit le plus faible possible. Toutes ces \u00e9tapes se font sans aucune intervention humaine gr\u00e2ce un algorithme de machine learning d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 par Data-Prisme. Chaque jour le r\u00e9sultat du calcul fait ainsi \u00e9voluer automatiquement le R0 sur le site web de l\u2019application sans aucune intervention humaine. \u00ab <em>Le mod\u00e8le que nous avons d\u00e9velopp\u00e9 est particuli\u00e8rement fiable, nous sommes maintenant en mesure d\u2019y int\u00e9grer d\u2019autres variables, comme par exemple la possibilit\u00e9 qu\u2019une partie de la population qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 malade ne soit pas pour autant immunis\u00e9e. Pour les institutions, cette application peut \u00eatre une aide \u00e0 la prise de d\u00e9cision pr\u00e9cieuse pour l\u2019avenir et nous nous tenons pr\u00eat \u00e0 r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 toutes demandes en ce sens <\/em>\u00bb conclut Matthieu Neveu.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>L\u2019application Covista est <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dataprisme.com\">disponible sur le site&nbsp;<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Ou <a href=\"https:\/\/covista.data-prisme.com\/\">directement \u00e0 cette adresse<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>O\u00f9 en sera l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de Covid19 \u00e0 No\u00ebl ? Covista est une application web qui permet d\u2019illustrer les dynamiques auxquelles on peut s\u2019attendre en France dans l\u2019\u00e9volution du Covid19. D\u00e9velopp\u00e9e par l\u2019entreprise r\u00e9unionnaise Data-prisme, cette application web a un objectif p\u00e9dagogique : sensibiliser la population \u00e0 l\u2019importance du respect des gestes barri\u00e8res. &nbsp; &nbsp; Un [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":20904,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[276,33],"tags":[278,265],"class_list":["post-20899","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gadgets","category-web","tag-featured","tag-la-reunion"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>COVISTA projeter l\u2019\u00e9volution du COVID - ict.io<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"O\u00f9 en sera l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de Covid19 \u00e0 No\u00ebl ? 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